Super Tuesday Prediction For New Mexico

Super Tuesday Candidate Predictions
New Mexico

The state of New Mexico is holding its Democratic primary early this year like many of its counterparts on February 5th 2008. The state is regarded as swing state to both the Republican and Democratic parties. New Mexico is one of the most culturally diverse states in the union and has the “highest proportion” of Hispanics in the United States as CNN points out. While many national polls have been taken in most states, New Mexico has been ignored. The lack of polling may be due to the single party primary on Tuesday February 5th 2008; but the Democratic Candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama have both made noteworthy visits to New Mexico this past week. New Mexico offers 38 total delegates to the Democratic convention with 26 directly tied to the outcome of the primary which is closed.
Although New Mexico’s delegation is nothing compared to California or New York, it does give the winner a referendum on Hispanic support. New Mexico has a population of roughly 2 million people and 44% of them are Hispanic according to the United States Census Bureau. Of the 2 million people 1,088, 977 of them are registered to vote according to the 2006 New Mexico Secretary of State’s web site. There are 538,471 registered Democrats in New Mexico eligible to vote on Super Tuesday, making up 49% of registered voters in New Mexico.
New Mexico has a high concentration of Hispanics and transplants living in Northern part of the state and is the base of the Democratic Party, while the South East is a major Republican stronghold, and the South West is a marginal Democratic hold with a high Hispanic population as well. In the last Democratic Presidential Primaries of 2004, John Kerry won with 42%, Wes Clark with 21%, and John Edwards holding onto 16%. It should be noted John Kerry was probably the most liberal of candidates comparable to Barack Obama today. While the southern part of the state is marginally Democratic, they tend to vote conservatively. In the general election of 2004 President Bush claimed New Mexico with 49.84% while John Kerry received 49.05% of the popular vote.
In the national polls as of January 30th 2008 Hillary Clinton is ahead with 48% to Obama’s 41%, as reported by Gallup. Obama’s recent and significant climb in the polls since January 20th from 28% to 41% shows his growing popularity amongst likely Democratic primary voters. That trend may be evident in New Mexico as well because in the latest poll conducted by New Mexico State University Obama is ahead with 48% to Clinton’s 42%. The poll is significant because it is the newest poll done since the popular Governor and ex presidential hopeful Bill Richardson dropped out; in previous polls he was ahead with high numbers. I believe the NMSU poll is questionable because amongst the 409 New Mexican voters polled only 51% were Democrats and 57% of them were women(50% are actual population); I think the poll was over sampled.
It is evident of Sen. Obama’s growing popularity in the country and the state of New Mexico but one fact from the polls was even more significant. In the Gallup poll published February 1st 2008 Sen. Clinton had a 30 point margin lead over Sen. Obama amongst Hispanics. It should also be noted that both Nevada and Florida have a high amount of Hispanic populations and both were won by Sen. Clinton. With gender becoming less a factor in Sen. Clinton’s campaign, race has become a strong factor amongst Hispanic voters. It is clear that more Hispanics are willing to support Clinton over Obama. With New Mexico’s 44% Hispanic population and Governor Richardson’s close ties to the Clintons I am willing to predict a victory in New Mexico for Sen. Clinton.
New Mexico is interesting as well because with its near majority of Hispanics, the Richardson factor plays a strong part. In the New Mexico State University poll over 50% of those polled had a favorable approval of Richardson. He has not endorsed a candidate yet but he has a long line of allegiance to the Clintons and President Clinton spent Super Bowl Sunday with Governor Richardson in Red River, NM. Although he has not publicly endorsed, many in the state (me included) have heard high remarks of Sen. Clinton from the Governor. The victory will be a close victory for Clinton because according to the NMSU poll, amongst Hispanic voters in New Mexico 48% would vote for Clinton compared to Obama’s 46%.
New Mexican voters are most concerned with the Economy, War, and Healthcare. Clinton and Obama’s stances are quite similar thus not influencing much polarization for voters when it comes to issues. On that note I believe the issue and strength for each candidate will be race and popularity. With New Mexico’s high Hispanic population, an influential Governor, and Clinton’s national strength amongst Hispanics I will predict a Clinton victory but only by a margin of 6 points (guess for extra credit?). Sen. Obama has paid New Mexico a lot of attention with his endorser Sen. Kennedy speaking in Albuquerque and Santa Fe last week and himself in those respective cities as well. His wife will be in the Southern city of Las Cruces on Monday and because of his high appearance in New Mexico I think he will give Clinton a hot contest but because of factors stated he will fall just short of winning New Mexico’s delegation.