Early California Projections...

Fox News just reported that they are projecting California to go to Senators McCain and Clinton. If this is true, things are looking very good for Clinton and Sen. McCain will be the nominee of the Republican Party. We are taking back the party!

Super Tuesday... eat your Wheaties my fellow Politicos!

Politicos across the country will be humming the kind Christmas tune in their head, "it's the most wonderful time of the year" all day long as today Super Tuesday takes off. Black Friday (the day following Thanksgiving) is to retail business, what Super Tuesday is to as Joe Monahan puts it, "La Politica". At the end of the day we may have both party nominations lined up and we may not! As I had previously written in yesterdays post, I am predicting a Clinton win in New Mexico but Obama's rise is popping charts! In Gallup’s most recent poll Obama is in arms length from Clinton’s 48% and his 46%. I do not like the man, I would never vote for him, or shake his hand but I do respect his hard fought campaign. I think the Super Tuesday contest for Democrats will end in a split with either Clinton or Obama ahead by a slim margin. I will surely enjoy seeing them fight it out to the end. Please no more civil debates, it gives these liberal, beret wearing Loyolans a reason to be proud.

The Republican field is getting rather hot for a party including an elderly statesmen, Baptist minister, and a Mormon who can't drink. They had to kick the guy from Texas out, he was getting belligerent. Ha-ha. Romney supposedly has a lead in the polls in California now according Reuters but McCain still has a commanding lead across the nation. The February 2nd poll from Gallup has McCain at 43%, Romney at 24%, and Huckabee has 18%. I think it is clear that Huck Finn is keeping Romney at bay for McCain, at least with conservative voters. I see McCain winning this super day but Romney will pull an upset at least in one state. The right wing of the Republican Party will not go down with out a fight and McCain welcomes it. The days are numbered for the neo-conservatives who were elected to office to get the job done. Well they have some accomplishment, but they let spending get out of control and they are snooping into Americans private lives where they don't belong.

I will spend the day going to class, watching and reading the latest news in between to see who's hurting who. I plan on having other politicos over for some beverages and watch the numbers come in. I wish you all a safe and happy Super Tuesday. Vote McCain!

Super Tuesday Prediction For New Mexico

Super Tuesday Candidate Predictions
New Mexico

The state of New Mexico is holding its Democratic primary early this year like many of its counterparts on February 5th 2008. The state is regarded as swing state to both the Republican and Democratic parties. New Mexico is one of the most culturally diverse states in the union and has the “highest proportion” of Hispanics in the United States as CNN points out. While many national polls have been taken in most states, New Mexico has been ignored. The lack of polling may be due to the single party primary on Tuesday February 5th 2008; but the Democratic Candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama have both made noteworthy visits to New Mexico this past week. New Mexico offers 38 total delegates to the Democratic convention with 26 directly tied to the outcome of the primary which is closed.
Although New Mexico’s delegation is nothing compared to California or New York, it does give the winner a referendum on Hispanic support. New Mexico has a population of roughly 2 million people and 44% of them are Hispanic according to the United States Census Bureau. Of the 2 million people 1,088, 977 of them are registered to vote according to the 2006 New Mexico Secretary of State’s web site. There are 538,471 registered Democrats in New Mexico eligible to vote on Super Tuesday, making up 49% of registered voters in New Mexico.
New Mexico has a high concentration of Hispanics and transplants living in Northern part of the state and is the base of the Democratic Party, while the South East is a major Republican stronghold, and the South West is a marginal Democratic hold with a high Hispanic population as well. In the last Democratic Presidential Primaries of 2004, John Kerry won with 42%, Wes Clark with 21%, and John Edwards holding onto 16%. It should be noted John Kerry was probably the most liberal of candidates comparable to Barack Obama today. While the southern part of the state is marginally Democratic, they tend to vote conservatively. In the general election of 2004 President Bush claimed New Mexico with 49.84% while John Kerry received 49.05% of the popular vote.
In the national polls as of January 30th 2008 Hillary Clinton is ahead with 48% to Obama’s 41%, as reported by Gallup. Obama’s recent and significant climb in the polls since January 20th from 28% to 41% shows his growing popularity amongst likely Democratic primary voters. That trend may be evident in New Mexico as well because in the latest poll conducted by New Mexico State University Obama is ahead with 48% to Clinton’s 42%. The poll is significant because it is the newest poll done since the popular Governor and ex presidential hopeful Bill Richardson dropped out; in previous polls he was ahead with high numbers. I believe the NMSU poll is questionable because amongst the 409 New Mexican voters polled only 51% were Democrats and 57% of them were women(50% are actual population); I think the poll was over sampled.
It is evident of Sen. Obama’s growing popularity in the country and the state of New Mexico but one fact from the polls was even more significant. In the Gallup poll published February 1st 2008 Sen. Clinton had a 30 point margin lead over Sen. Obama amongst Hispanics. It should also be noted that both Nevada and Florida have a high amount of Hispanic populations and both were won by Sen. Clinton. With gender becoming less a factor in Sen. Clinton’s campaign, race has become a strong factor amongst Hispanic voters. It is clear that more Hispanics are willing to support Clinton over Obama. With New Mexico’s 44% Hispanic population and Governor Richardson’s close ties to the Clintons I am willing to predict a victory in New Mexico for Sen. Clinton.
New Mexico is interesting as well because with its near majority of Hispanics, the Richardson factor plays a strong part. In the New Mexico State University poll over 50% of those polled had a favorable approval of Richardson. He has not endorsed a candidate yet but he has a long line of allegiance to the Clintons and President Clinton spent Super Bowl Sunday with Governor Richardson in Red River, NM. Although he has not publicly endorsed, many in the state (me included) have heard high remarks of Sen. Clinton from the Governor. The victory will be a close victory for Clinton because according to the NMSU poll, amongst Hispanic voters in New Mexico 48% would vote for Clinton compared to Obama’s 46%.
New Mexican voters are most concerned with the Economy, War, and Healthcare. Clinton and Obama’s stances are quite similar thus not influencing much polarization for voters when it comes to issues. On that note I believe the issue and strength for each candidate will be race and popularity. With New Mexico’s high Hispanic population, an influential Governor, and Clinton’s national strength amongst Hispanics I will predict a Clinton victory but only by a margin of 6 points (guess for extra credit?). Sen. Obama has paid New Mexico a lot of attention with his endorser Sen. Kennedy speaking in Albuquerque and Santa Fe last week and himself in those respective cities as well. His wife will be in the Southern city of Las Cruces on Monday and because of his high appearance in New Mexico I think he will give Clinton a hot contest but because of factors stated he will fall just short of winning New Mexico’s delegation.

Barack Hussein Obama is no JFK or Jesus Christ...

This man is not enchanting me like my home state does, and to most of you that is a surprise. He speaks of change, hope, lollipops, and puppy dogs which have set many of my peers in a weird socialist trance. It is all the sudden "in" to be a socialist, aid to Africa, anti-capitalist Democrat these days. This fake from Illinois speaking of how he snubs lobbyist Washington and special interest is a load of plain ol' BS. Today in the New York Times (yes I read it because it is important to know what ones adversaries are thinking) there was an interesting article on a piece of legislation that the mysterious Senator touts as a milestone accomplishment in sticking it to the man. I won't go into details but Exelon Corporation of Illinois had a minimal leak of nuclear material at one of its plants in rural Illinois. Citizens who were naturally alarmed of the minimal leak gained Obama's attention and he wrote legislation requiring all nuclear plants to alert authorities and civilians of any type of leak, major or minor. This legislation has become a cornerstone to his stump speech on how he has stood up to the "man" (corporations, capitalists, anyone who is a free enterpriser really) and worked to get it passed. What is peculiar is that while constructing this legislation Senate Republicans, Exelon and other corporations pleaded with Obama to tone the legislation down and make changes that they wanted... we'll he did and the bill never passed because he dropped the issue. It is rather ironic to see that amongst the millions of middle class Americans that are funding his race against the "man" and special interests groups of Washington, Exelon Corporation employees and executives(yes the same one from Illinois) have contributed 227,000 dollars; One of his biggest block of contributors. So to all of you out there that want to maintain barack HUSSEIN obama's innocence from Washington, quit being so damn naive. He takes money from special interests and lobbyists just like any politician does. How else do you think he arrived at the position he is. Read more at CNN.